Analysis of several issues concerned by the curren

2022-09-22
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Analysis of several issues concerned by the current cobalt Market

since March 2018, the price of cobalt has fallen all the way. Entering the beginning of 2019, the price of cobalt continued to fall to $13.3/pound, and the price of electricity cobalt in the domestic market once fell to 230000 yuan/ton. Over the past two years, the high cobalt price has stimulated the enthusiasm for the construction of the cobalt copper project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. With the sudden decline of the cobalt price, the project investment tends to be rational, the construction of some projects is suspended, the product structure is adjusted in time after the completion of some projects, and the trading market for local people's mining in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is also very light. These adjustments will help to improve the supply of cobalt mine output in 2019 and launch expert lectures in the future, and help the domestic and foreign markets digest inventory

entering April, the painting style of cobalt market has changed sharply, and the international market price has increased continuously, mainly due to the increase of orders for purchasing electric cobalt in the foreign superalloy industry, the second is that traders take advantage of the low price to receive goods, the third is that Sumitomo Japan replaced the electrolytic cobalt production equipment, and will not ship it before mid May. In addition, due to the mining and logistics cycle, the raw materials of DRC will not be sent out for a while because of the price rise. At present, China is in the transitional period of the power vehicle subsidy policy in 2019, and lithium battery manufacturers are actively stocking impulse. The installation time is about one month, and the momentum may slow down after mid May. Therefore, it is judged that the price will continue to rise before the middle of May

the total plate of the cobalt market is small, which is easy to be pursued and hyped by funds. Events such as the change of the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the revision of the mining law broke out in 2018, which exacerbated the uncertainty of the supply side. Since then, as the tide of hot money faded, the cobalt price was overcorrected, soaring and plummeting. In fact, if the existing cobalt projects are put into operation and reach production on schedule, coupled with strengthening the exploration and prospecting work in the deep part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and strengthening the recovery of cobalt containing materials on the consumer side, there will be no obvious gap between cobalt supply and demand. The problem is that the global cobalt resources are excessively concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and the uneven distribution of resources, coupled with the long logistics channels and delivery cycles, leads to the risk of artificially controlled cobalt supply

3.26 the impact of the new deal of electric vehicle subsidies on cobalt

in 2019, the new deal of electric vehicle subsidies directly raised the threshold of passenger vehicle mileage subsidies to 250 kilometers, and it does not rule out that some A00 vehicles turn to lithium iron phosphate; Increase the energy density of the power battery system to 125wh/kg, moderately increase the technical parameters, but do not blindly pursue high indicators, pay attention to product safety, and the process of high nickel may slow down, so the impact on cobalt consumption in electric vehicles is neutral. In 2019, according to the prediction of the output of 1.68 million electric vehicles and the installed capacity of 80gwh power batteries in China, considering the small trend of lithium iron phosphate resurgence in 2019, it is estimated that the amount of cobalt used in China's electric vehicle industry will be 12000 tons (total cobalt concept, including recycled and native), an increase of 4700 tons over 2018. China is the largest electric vehicle market in the world. Considering that other countries have different technical routes and less policy incentives than China, the cobalt consumption and increment of global electric vehicles are at most twice that of China. The increment of supply in 2019 can fully meet the increment of consumption

pay attention to the concept and technical route of electric vehicles at home and abroad

since 2014, the development of new energy vehicles has been raised to an unprecedented height at home and abroad. In September 2017, the leaders of the Ministry of industry and information technology proposed that China should ban the sale of fuel vehicles at the Tianjin TEDA forum. After May 2018, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have attracted much attention in the domestic capital market, bringing some confusion to enterprises investing in lithium battery projects in the early stage

people in China's electric vehicle industry held a "seminar on the schedule of comprehensive electrification promotion" on March 30, pointing out that the concept of electric vehicles in the world is larger than that of new energy vehicles in China. The definition of electric vehicle in China is pure electric vehicle, incremental electric vehicle and fuel cell vehicle. The concept of foreign electric vehicles also generally includes ordinary hybrid vehicles

currently, five countries have proposed a clear timetable for banning combustion, including the Netherlands, Norway, France, Britain and India, four of which are European countries. It should be said that these countries (except India) have set an example in the field of vehicle electrification, but these countries' overall economy is developed and the market scale is small, and the models encouraged to develop and the improvement of ride comfort are also different

55% at the Symposium of "Blue Book of new energy vehicles" and "Research on the coordinated development of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles and new energy vehicles" held on April 4 (the annual output is about 150million square meters); Secondly, the experts from China Automotive Research Institute for plastic doors and windows pointed out that the industrial innovation of China's automobile with low sampling rate will include the parallel development of various technical routes such as pure electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells, natural gas, methanol vehicles, etc. From April 8 to 9, xinguobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, led a team to Guangdong Province to investigate hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

we also believe that with such a large market and such a large regional difference in China, if we rashly put forward a combustion ban schedule and adopt a single technical route without careful research, it will inevitably cause huge waves in the global raw material market, thus forming a passive strategy again

I believe that the power of technology will affect all links of the industrial chain

in the first two years, the high subsidy policy stimulated the development of the whole industrial chain of electric vehicles, driving the soaring price of lithium cobalt nickel and the upsurge of resource development at home and abroad. From 2016 to 2017, all kinds of analysis are based on the development of technology, which will bring about the "revolution" of future travel modes. We should not only believe in the general trend of the development of electric vehicles in the future, but also believe that battery and material enterprises will continue to strive for formulas with higher cost performance. We should also believe that the supply of mineral resources will increase through deep mineral exploration, smelting technology progress and rigid constraints on battery recycling. There is no static supply bottleneck of cobalt in the world, please rest assured

every time the cobalt price plummets, the market always hopes that the State Reserve's purchase and storage or other large-scale purchases by other groups will provide the bottom line for the price. In July, 2018, there was indeed news in the market that Japanese auto companies planned to form an alliance to purchase upstream resources in a unified manner, but at that time, prices were still in the process of unilateral decline, and no enterprise or country would rush into such a situation. A large amount of purchase and storage or purchase must be possible only when the price hovers at a low level for a long time

if a commodity is constantly disturbed by factors such as resource shortage, tight supply and unstable production line at the beginning of large-scale application, the downstream will certainly minimize this impact through technical means. The soaring price of cobalt in 2008 prompted the manufacturers of hydrogen storage alloys for nickel hydrogen batteries to continue to strengthen technological research and development. The cobalt content of hydrogen storage alloys fell from 8% to 2%. Later, when the cobalt price was depressed for a long time, technicians were still developing materials with lower cobalt content. This trend of technological progress is basically irreversible

according to the analysis of experts from mainstream enterprises in the industry, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are very necessary as technical reserves, but in the past decade, it is still a strategic opportunity for the development of lithium-ion power batteries. In the future, we will continue to explore while walking. Therefore, enterprises in the cobalt industry chain should cherish it. Otherwise, if the skin does not exist, how will Mao attach it

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